This is the case for countries with shaky political coalitions. In fact, the only change to our Top 5 Risks for 2020 is the order in which we rank them, with the political and economic impacts of the pandemic pushing the risks previously ranked in fourth and fifth place to the fore. The distant, unknowable future usually holds the greatest risk; our comfort zone is the short term, where nothing hides out of sight. Recent concerns about the overall strength of the global economy, particularly in light of the ongoing Brexit debate between the United Kingdom and European Union, uncertainties over global trade discussions, declines in certain manufacturing sectors, and a general reduction of growth in major economies have clearly heightened this risk for 2020. The pandemic has stood that principle on its head. Our participants focused on a wide range of issues, from business disruption and malicious attacks to data protection and innovation. Prior to the pandemic, a number of countries presented a volatile mix of political instability and economic vulnerability. Interestingly, economic concerns are in the top-five list of risks for all regions of the world, except in North America. Airmic 1st July 2020. We highlight how the top five global risks are playing out at a regional level. World leaders, each in their own patch, will continue to act unilaterally. Succession challenges and talent acquisition and retention (2). 8. Date last reviewed: October 2020 This is a resource for quality assurance and risk management purposes only, and is not intended to provide or replace legal or medical advice or reflect standards of … In the past, it might have sufficed to adopt a somewhat defensive or reactive approach to manage these risks. Brazil stands out as a country whose handling of COVID-19 threatens political stability. Across the world, social pressures and coordinated activism … One risk that dropped out of the top 10 this year is the concern that the rapid speed of disruptive innovations and/or new technologies within the industry may outpace the organization’s ability to compete and/or manage the risk appropriately without making significant changes to the business model. Added to our 2020 survey, this risk debuted in the top 10, reflecting an overall concern among survey respondents that the adoption of digital technologies — such as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics and natural language processing — in their organizations may require new skills that either are in short supply or require significant efforts to upskill and reskill existing employees. Helping organisations succeed in a volatile world, © Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd registration no.01548306, 5. The US election is likely to be a waypoint, not an inflection point, in the trend towards strategic competition. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has entered a period of steep political decline. Continued vigilance is critical. And a world waiting for the US to elect – or re-elect – a president will not wait idly on the side lines. It is a risk that executives may want to focus their attention on, as it signals a noticeable concern that employees across the organization may be aware of risks, but for whatever reason, are reluctant to escalate them to executive management or the board. Democratic governors. Existing operations, infrastructure and digital capabilities unable to adjust to “born digital” competitors or those with superior performance (1). Previous waves of crisis – the global financial crash of 2008, for example – at least brought a coordinated response among key financial centres and their markets and regulators. However, the nature of the top 10 risks this year — which include risks associated with the ability to adjust operations, IT infrastructure and digital capabilities to fend off threats from “born digital” players, resistance to change, talent acquisition and retention challenges, uncertainty over cyber and privacy issues, customer loyalty concerns, regulatory disruption and the effect of AI-enabled technologies on the future of work — indicates that this drop likely occurred because respondents in prior surveys were concerned about the potential for disruptive change, whereas now they are concerned about the disruption that is already upon them. Economic distress and healthcare inequality will underpin new political challenges. The WHO. The time has come to update our Top Risks 2020, taking into account how the coronavirus has accelerated the trends that worry us most. While no one knows that for sure, economic growth has, in fact, declined in the U.S., China and other countries. The overarching concern relates to how different types of regulatory requirements and oversight may lead to disruptions in business models and constrict companies’ ability to innovate in certain areas. The top five risks that your organisation currently faces vs the top five risk areas on which internal audit currently spends most time and effort: 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cybersecurity and data security Regulatory change and compliance Digitalisation, disruptive technology and … The drivers of activism are being supercharged. Based on quantitative and qualitative surveys, the report lays out how each respondent group views key risks. The advance of the virus has bolstered populist critics of globalisation and entrenched the polarisation and mistrust of government. But the public will also want to know what companies did during the crisis. The way we live – with our kitchens transformed into classrooms and offices – is filled with new rhythms and habits. Now that there is more time – and space – for criticism, we are seeing a much sharper picture of government instability with roots in politics, economics or both. The economy was also the top risk condition for … Put another way, we are, for the time being, stuck with the same risks we’ve always had, but more so. Global companies will come under increasing pressure to ensure their diversity, inclusion and ethics policies meet the moment. Activist societies already cite the COVID-19 crisis as an impetus for transformative environmental, social and economic policies. Each of them remains acutely valid, and even more vivid. As 2020 has already shown, five months is an eternity: there is still a long road before 3 November. A globally fragmented resumption will further distract key governments from addressing long-standing strategic issues that loomed at the start of the year. This is no longer tenable. We’ve lived with growing levels of geopolitical risk for nearly a decade, but without a true international crisis. Digital effectiveness remains in the top three risks and opportunities … To download, select the icon from the top right-hand corner of this page. In 2020, US political institutions will be tested as never before, and … And for just about everyone, the question of what happened yesterday, last week or last month has become a distorted guessing game. 2020 is a tipping point. If there’s one emerging risk that will dominate 2020, it will be the development of natural disasters and the consequential damage they impose on livelihoods across the globe. top risks expected to increase in 2020 respondents to global risks perception survey (%) economic confrontation/frictions between major powers 78.5% domestic political polarisation 78.4% extreme heat waves 77.1% destruction of natural ecosystems 76.2% cyber attacks: disruption of operations and infrastructure 76.1% protectionism regarding trade and investment With a focus on helping organizations respond to government mandates, shareholder demands and a changing business environment in a cost-effective and sustainable manner, Jim assists companies in integrating risk and risk management with strategy setting and performance management. AI-enabled technologies will greatly influence — often by enabling and sometimes by making more complex — how companies design and manage their labor models. The US has held successful presidential elections at times of national crisis before – think 1864 or 1968 – but not in the crucible of a deadly global pandemic. 4. While dropping slightly to the number four position for 2020, it is nonetheless a significant risk concern for 67 percent of our respondents. This is the case for countries that have enacted budget-busting bailout programmes. State-sponsored operations are hyperactively targeting the scientific and medical communities researching for a COVID-19 treatment or vaccine. The Top Geopolitical Risks of 2020 December 12, 2019 Rising geopolitical and geo-economic tensions represent the most urgent global risks, and will only continue to escalate in 2020. Succession challenges and talent acquisition and retention (2) The risk of succession challenges … Just as the world entered the crisis with a crunching of gears and multiple wrong turns, it is reversing out of it in the same manner. Cyber incidents. Supply chain attacks are on the rise. The Trump and Biden campaigns will continue to accuse each other of being soft on China, while the administration and Congress will stack pressure on Beijing up to and beyond the election. We certainly did not forecast the COVID-19 pandemic. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects global growth to stand at only 2.9% in 2020, close to decade lows. Digital remains in the top three. The adoption of digital technologies in transforming the business may require new skills that the organization may not be able to attract or retain (NEW). The COVID-19 crisis provides a concrete illustration of the growing connectivity of risks, which AXA presented as one of the main findings of last year’s report. Top risks and megatrends 2020 Airmic annual survey report. One important observation, consistent with prior years, is that there is variation in views among boards and C-suite executives regarding the magnitude and severity of risks for 2020. In addition, volatility in equity markets, changes in the U.S. federal funds rate, actions by other central banks, multiple tariff and trade policy disputes and negotiations and the continued uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s break from the European Union have executives on the edge of their seats, wondering if an economic downturn is on the near-term horizon. Which companies were good to their customers, suppliers and surrounding communities? Read the risk. Time and risk are fellow travellers. The Protiviti report includes an in-depth analysis of the risk concerns recorded in the survey. The “new normal” has become a cliché for the world we are feeling our way towards. Whether covert or overt, resistance to changes necessary to deal with disruptive innovations or regulatory constraints that alter business fundamentals can be catastrophic. The same is true for Control Risks Top 5 Risks for 2020, as initially released in December 2019. Risk.net staff @riskdotnet 04 Mar 2020; Tweet . 3 Theft and fraud. Save this article. For most companies today, it’s not a question of whether digital will upend their business, but when. The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting almost every measurable human activity. The unprecedented alignment of capability and intent set 2020 up to be the year when we would see a large-scale attack on critical infrastructure. For countries and companies already caught in the middle of the trade and technology rivalries since 2018, the squeeze between US and Chinese pressures now looms even larger and closer than it did in January. The US-China rivalry will work hard on the campaign trail. 3. Governments will be held to account for their death rates and infection counts. Antifa. Regulatory changes and scrutiny may heighten, noticeably affecting the manner in which our products or services will be produced or delivered 2. Baker McKenzie partnered with Risk.net in its annual ranking of the top operational risks for 2020. Egypt and Spain too will face political stresses, but everyone is in uncharted territory. They also have more time on their hands. Our organization’s … After the COVID-19 hiatus, masked and socially distanced, the activist society is taking back to the streets. Risks require prevention and protection to be considered through a global, interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder approach. Systemic racial discrimination in the US – which draws as well from income inequality and is accelerated by the pandemic’s disproportionate blow to racial and ethnic minorities– promises to make the coming year pitched with protest. This vital specialized knowledge and subject-matter expertise are in high demand and becoming harder to acquire and retain on a cost-effective basis. Using mean scores across respondents, we rank-ordered risks from highest to lowest impact. Shifts in how individuals want to work, their ability to be nimble enough to adjust to the changing nature of work and their lifestyle preferences are straining the ability of organizations to attract and retain the talent needed. Regulatory change and heightened regulatory scrutiny impacting operational resilience and production and delivery of products and services (4). : Who Governs the US? [1] “Executive Perspectives on Top Risks 2020,” Protiviti and North Carolina State University’s ERM Initiative. Many people have spent time working from home and still are - potentially working outside the perimeter of their companies’ cyber protection. Cybersecurity: the stakes have never been higher, Watch the RiskMap 2020 Special Edition Webinar. 2019 and the early days of 2020 revealed a world … 2019 and the early days of 2020 revealed a world convulsed by activism, fuelled by a now-familiar list of drivers: income inequality, climate change, gender equality, the rights of racial and ethnic minorities or indigenous people, and refugees and migration, among others. (39% of responses) Cyber risk tops the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first time with … The risk of succession challenges and the ability to attract and retain talent remains among the top five risks for 2020, in light of continued record-low unemployment in many regions of the world. This framework might include, on the human side, outsourcing and offshoring, consulting partnerships, interim staffing, business process as a service (BPaaS) relationships, managed services and a variety of “human cloud” arrangements. Send to . This summary provides a context for understanding the most critical uncertainties companies face in 2020. Which companies had inferior healthcare coverage? This task entails changing the entity’s current job structures — potentially displacing a significant number of existing job roles — and reorganizing these structures in a different framework of discrete, deconstructed units deploying a range of approaches, relationships and technologies. Broadly speaking, we do not believe the pandemic has created substantial new categories of risk. Many governments moved to fight the pandemic alone, with transactional deals in place of a collaborative global response. This risk issue was added to our 2015 risk survey, and it has been ranked in the top 10 risks each year since that time. To thrive in the digital age, organizations need to think and act digitally and have the capabilities to execute digital plans. Tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with the emergence of a novel coronavirus in China, will limit any pick-up in business confidence and investment. These are where cyberattackers inject code into a website — … If organizations cannot adjust their operations, legacy IT infrastructure and digital capabilities (as discussed above), they may not meet the expectations of their core customers in a manner sufficient to retain their loyalty. Survey respondents were asked to rate 30 different risks involving macroeconomic, strategic, and operational issues. Theft and fraud jumps to third in this year’s survey – a sign of both its ubiquity for … During the early phases of the pandemic, it was difficult to identify the trouble spots. Cyber incidents have been ranked as the top business risk in the Allianz Global Risk Barometer 2020, knocking business interruption from a top spot it had held for seven consecutive years. Over the eight years we have conducted this survey, this risk has been in the #1 or #2 spot each year — except for the last two years, when it was slightly lower, but still in the list of top five risks. While the overall global economy remains relatively strong, there has been growing speculation – particularly in the United States – that the long streak of economic growth may stall in the near term. Whatever the reason, the number of instances in which an organization’s leaders are unaware of internally caused, reputation-damaging risks and surprises until the point of revelation is troubling. Facebook . LinkedIn . Top 10 op risks 2020: conduct risk Root-and-branch reform of bank culture remains a work in progress. COVID-19 lockdowns put a lid on many mass protest movements, but as restrictions are lifted, so too is the lid on social activism. Print this page . Most of the few attempts at cooperation – sending ventilators or other supplies to countries in need – came undone amid claims of mismanagement, fraud or political ill will. The election itself will be fraught and unprecedented. Years of simmering populism, nationalism and protectionism were never going to build the sort of trust and transparency countries need to work effectively with each other in a time of crisis. As with our prior surveys, our results offer snapshots by industry, executive position, company size and type and geographic area. Alternatively, the reluctance may stem from a dysfunctional culture that reflects employees’ fear about potential retribution if they were to escalate a risk concern. Respondents continue to perceive that significant operational challenges may arise if organizations are unable to build and sustain a workforce with the skills needed to implement their growth strategies, forcing them to consider alternative forms of labor. Economic conditions in markets we currently serve may significantly restrict growth opportunities for our organization 3. Conduct risk returns to this year’s Top 10 Op Risks, although it’s never really been away. The proliferation of data gathered and stored for long periods by all types of organizations across international borders is exponentially increasing operational challenges related to the tracking, warehousing and protecting of that data. Here are ten of the top geopolitical risks to watch out for in 2020: 2020 elections : Either a Trump reelection or a victory for a Democratic challenger is bound to deepen US political tribalism. It continues to represent a major source of uncertainty among the majority of organizations, given that 70 percent of respondents rated it as a significant risk issue. It won’t stop there. Senior executives and their boards may want to consider the above risks in evaluating the risks inherent in their organization’s operations and the board’s risk oversight focus for the coming year. Over 70 percent of respondents rated this concern as a significant risk issue for 2020. Jim DeLoach has over 35 years of experience and is a member of Protiviti’s Solutions Leadership Team. Respondents recognize that reality, with two-thirds of our respondents rating this risk as a significant impact risk concern for 2020. Rigged! For example, shifts in regulations related to privacy, product development and approval, trade and tariff policies, the environment, social issues and broader governance expectations have been happening and continue to happen around the world, impacting any organization that wishes to do business both within and outside its home-country borders. The presence of this risk, coupled with concerns over resistance to change, reflects on the state of an organization’s overall culture. The top 10 most dangerous risks for 2020 chosen by the 101 insurance executives who answered our poll are: 01 Cybersecurity and cybercrime (up from two in 2019) Insurers have more to worry about regarding cybercrime than other businesses. The pandemic, however, seems to be the moment the world wasn’t waiting for, and apparently wasn’t prepared for, either. How is your internet connection holding up? Most executives concerned about economic conditions. China. OnRisk 2020 brings together the perspectives of the board, executive management, and chief audit executives (CAEs) on the risks that are top of mind for 2020 and beyond. The bots are balloting, too. 9. If the company’s risk assessment processes have not identified these issues as priority risks, executives and directors should ask why not — and consider the relevance of these issues to their business. Conducted online in the fall of 2019, the survey asked each respondent to rate 30 individual risk issues using a 10-point scale, where a score of 1 reflects “No Impact at All” and a score of 10 reflects “Extensive Impact” to their organization over the next year. Governments and companies will now be held to account for their actions and performance as leaders and as corporate citizens when the world was on its knees. Each of the issues, and many more identified in our trends report, represent a potential area of risk. As the future world of work evolves, organizations need to optimize their mix of internal, contracted and interim human talent and electronic workers (machines and algorithms). Concurrently, multinational companies – and their dense trans-Pacific supply chains – will be key players shaping how far US-China competition upends established business patterns. This is the case for countries heavily dependent on oil exports. This is not hubris or “We told you so”. Typically, they travel in the same direction. The report is based on a survey of operational risk practitioners across the globe and in-depth interview with respondents. That risk concern raced from the number 10 position in 2018 to the number one position for 2019. As major business model disruptors emerge — whether from technology advancements, competitor actions, regulations or other sources — respondents are growing even more focused on their organizations’ potential unwillingness or inability to make necessary timely adjustments to the business model and core operations that might be needed to respond to change. Cybersecurity continues to be a moving target as innovative digital transformation initiatives, cloud computing adoptions, mobile device usage, robotics, machine and deep learning and other applications of exponential increases in computing power continue to outpace the security protections many companies have in place. Perhaps there was no other way. Not surprisingly, information security and cyber remained the top risk for 2020. Most people think that the physical and virtual worlds are separate, but in reality the virtual world is very much affected by the natural disasters of the physical world. Talent and culture risks and technology and innovation risks dominate the top 10. Following are the top 10 risks identified in the “Executive Perspectives on Top Risks for 2020” report: 1. Respondents continue to highlight the need to give attention to the overall culture of the organization to ensure it is sufficient to encourage the timely identification and escalation of risk issues. Roddy Dunlop said the rate of Covid transmission in the capital is "so low" that it should be placed into Level 2 and the government's refusal put firms at risk of "financial ruin", STV reports. Increasingly sophisticated attacks by perpetrators of cybercrime add to the uncertainty. In particular, COVID-19 accentuated national security concerns around biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and medical devices. Businesses across Africa are also increasingly concerned about business interruption as it has become the continent’s top risk in 2020 from 5th in 2019,” he said. Respondents remain noticeably concerned about the ability of their organizations — relative to competitors — to adjust their existing operations, IT infrastructure and digital capabilities to meet performance expectations. If so, that problem can be solved through education and constant communication. We thought many of those countries would come under extreme pressure in 2020. It’s a phrase loaded – falsely, perhaps – with suggestions of a return to something familiar or at least predictable. Companies with global footprints will themselves have to become leaders in navigating a minefield of conflicting political priorities, regulatory regimes and pandemic de-escalation. But it also includes a technological side, such as robotic process automation and AI-enabled technologies that both displace existing skills and demand new skills. Construction frequently requires workers to work at height. Renewed economic activity will not lift all the ships of state equally. Economic and social factors are beginning to outweigh public health; for millions across the world, the choice is increasingly between unsustainable hardship and risking infection by continuing to work. That’s why, for the seventh consecutive year, AXA has conducted its annual survey of emerging risks. Younger generations who have grown up in a technology-centric world view digital technologies as native, transforming the traditional ways organizations deliver products and services. Download eBook: Top 10 Risk & Compliance Trends for 2020. Concerns over operational capabilities have strategic underpinnings. [1], 1. The activist society passes judgement. Both companies and governments should expect to be grilled for their pandemic management tactics. Protiviti’s Jim DeLoach provides an update from the ERM Initiative of the various risks organizations face relative to two years ago. Simply stated, technology is expected to support and shape the components of the workforce by offering additional capabilities that, if applied intelligently, will increase quality, compress elapsed time, reduce costs and enhance scalability. In addition to the countless lives lost or damaged, the fabric of business and society is being rewoven into a new pattern. Cyber criminals know we’re vulnerable – a spike in ransomware operations globally is adding to an already complex crisis management cycle for many businesses. The disruption to our very sense of time is profound but little discussed – so much else is more urgent. What’s at stake is sustaining a workforce with the requisite talent and skills needed to think creatively in a rapidly changing digital marketplace, execute high-performance business models and implement increasingly demanding growth strategies. Risk outlook: the world in 2020. Even when executives are aware of emerging technologies that obviously have disruptive potential, it is often difficult to clarify the implications of the vision or foresight that anticipates the nature and extent of change — particularly if the organization does not think or act digitally at its core. The way we work – whether we remain at home, have returned to offices and factories or have been there all along– feels dramatically different. 10. 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